Earlybird Report

Good Morning Nevada (and the rest of the world.) It's May First in the Silver State and that means we're moving into a new phase in the Horse Wars. Some outside groups are going to start becoming more directly "involved" so we here in Nevada can still maintain the campaign but have the time we need to keep an eye on the range - on foot, on horseback, in Jeeps, and in the air, and dealing with typical spring / summer range activities. When we report to you what's going on out on the range, you can bet we plan to be out there to get that intel.

All sorts of folks who spend out on the range are taking photos and notes and sending them in. Here's a current representative example of the "starving horses" on that range "that does not have forage on it."

We're also not letting the Horse Wars distract us from our "pro Nevada" activities. We'll be out on the range today with crews helping promote Nevada eco-tourism. Just because we have to corral the crackpots at the Department of Agriculture doesn't mean that the horse groups don't care about promoting what's right about our state.

2 - 3 - 4 Thousand Horses? (Reprise)

After yesterday's report went out we were asked to address Ed Foster's 2 - 3 - 4 thousand horses statement. Ergo I posted the following addition to the report. Since folks reading the report early in the day would have missed it, it was suggested that we roll that piece over onto today's report - so here it is again.

The premise here involves challenges to Foster's assertions that if the horses were allowed to run free, by his calculations we'd be overrun with 2 - 3 - 4 thousand horses. (We have audio and video of Foster's statement posted to the web site.)

Foster was a bit peeved at me when I challenged his validity.

Foster wrote: "Willis….I’ve seen the quote, I spoke the quote, the “if” qualifies the statement. Now if you don’t think that the VR estray herd’s population would explode by “letting them run” for two or three years you are gravely mistaken. In the future, no need to copy the Governor’s office….I copy them on everything that goes out of here."

Let's just focus on these specific comments from Foster.

The range presently has - maybe - 1200 head. (There are indications that there may be fewer horses on the range but we'll go with this number.) At least ten percent of the horses are birth controlled. Less than half the remaining population are breeding age mares. (Stallions and baby horses don't produce foals - at least not in our universe.) So that leaves about 400 mares that could produce foals. Not all of them "take" or come to term. (Some are too young or too old to successfully bring foals to term.) Each year's foal crop has to mature before it can start producing foals of its own and until then these horses can't be included in the reproductive population basis. In a good year a herd of horses might experience around a 20% population growth.

Horses don't live forever. Every horse out there is going to die. So we can't add the birth rate to base population figures without also considering mortality.

Now if we give credence to Foster's claim that the range supposedly has no forage, birth rates will fall while morality rates will rise.

Here's the best case scenario, at least here on planet Earth: Without any management (including no birth control,) with incredibly abundant grasses, with no diseases or predators, with back to back high birthrate years for "two or three years," the herd could possibly bump up around 2,000 head. But how in the world can Foster state that the herd could be "2 - 3 - 4 thousand horses" in two or three years if, as he also claims, "That range does not have forage on it." ???

Foster's so-called calculations are just more NDoA voodoo science. Or perhaps he opened his mouth before he engaged his brain and is now scrambling to justify some patently ridiculous statements.

And then there's the other "Big Lie" - that the wild horse groups don't want to see the horses managed. We simply won't accept lies and incompetent management.

Next - The Wild Horse Promo Shoot.